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Post by Admin on Aug 4, 2013 13:22:52 GMT 8
Apr 14, 2013; 10:39am PC PC Time and Sales
I was told one can detect BB involvement by looking at e time n sales ,any comments?
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Post by Admin on Aug 4, 2013 13:23:09 GMT 8
Apr 14, 2013; 1:22pm cklim cklim
Hi PC,
it's true to a certain extent. But largely it depends on the price of the stock.
If you have a stock trading at $0.001, 1000 lots (1 million shares) will cost $1,000.
If you have a stock trading at $3.00, 100 lots (100,000 shares) will cost $300,000.
Now if one looks at the time and sales (T&S) for a micropenny, a huge block of 1000 lots transacted may not give a clear picture of whether it's BB or normal retailer buying/selling since the price is cheap enough for normal retailers to buy in this kind of huge block of stocks.
However, if we look at the T&S for a $3.00 stock, a 50lots buy up already cost $150,000. This may or may not be BBs involved as well since there might be deep pocketed retailers buying the stock as well. But since the amount of money involved is relatively big, we can assume that this is action by BBs regardless of whether it is the real smart money (BB) or deep pocketed retailers.
Of cos, we can't determine whether BBs are inside just by looking at a single transaction. One would need to look at the overall picture of the day's transactions (or from 9am till the point in time you check) in order to get a clearer picture. We must remember this important rule, ONLY by the involvement of BBs can the price of a stock move (up or down). Price move up by BBs who have accumulated the stock for some time and are trying to offload to others. Price move down by shortist BBs who short sell the stock and drive price down so they can buy back at a lower price.
If one see multiple big transactions going on, then we can more or less determine BBs are involved. Sometimes, due to the big amount of lots that BBs are trying to buy, we do not see these big transactions at all due to the single transaction being broken up into multiple smaller transactions (buying from retailers who have smaller lots). However, most of the time, if there is ample supply, this will present itself as multiple transactions with the same transacted time. So by adding up the total number of lots transacted at the same time, we can guess whether it's done by BBs or not. The most clear cut case of BBs unveiling themselves is when they try to bring the stock price up 1 point. The usual technique is to buy up all the stocks in the current sell queue at one go so that the price will automatically go up 1 point. Theis action (which I term scooping up) usually involved a huge amount of money which runs into the hundreds of thousands or sometimes even millions (depending on stock price).
Another clue of whether BBs are actively involved is to see the amount of 1lot buys/sells. This is an important clue of BB involvement especially if the price of the stock is low (penny stocks). Simple reasoning will tell us that normal retailers will not just buy 1 lot of penny stock since the commision involved per transansaction is already $25. For a 1lot buy of a penny stock at $0.20, the commision already cost more that the 1lot of stock. However, this will become a bit blur if more expensive stocks are involved since 1lot buys for more expensive stocks might really be retailers. (example, 1lot buy of UOB shares will cost more than $20k). But this does not mean that we can't use this 1lot buy/sells to detect if BBs are involved for expensive stocks. The same analysis still applies but this presents itself more in the form of 1lot sells. For example, there is a transaction to buy up the stock and almost immediately (usually within 1 minute), there is a 1 lot sell down. This shows that there is BB involvement and the BB is trying to keep the price from going up. Whether this is the work of a shortist BB or a BB whose trying to accumulate at lower prices, we do not know. But based on the actions, we can guess that there should be BB involvement.
For this 1lot buys/sells, from what I understand, this are actions by BBs to test the counterparty which translates to trying to find out who are the other party(s) involved/interested in the stock. We must remember that there are various groups of BBs (big and small) and they are always fighting each other. One side may be buying to push the price up while the other side is selling to either drive price down (shortists) or unloading their holdings. Sometimes, we see alot of these 1lot transactions within the day but the price does not move up. The reason is that if for every 1 lot buy up, there is a 1 lot sell down, that means that there is an opposing force and plenty of supply present. BBs will not risk pushing up prices since this will mean the risk of having huge amount of stocks dumped on them. Even though BBs have huge amount of money to buy and hold stocks, having huge amount of stocks being dumped on will mean they will be buying up stocks at higher prices instead of selling them at higher prices. This by itself is extremely bad business and may cause the BBs to go broke. Another possible reason is that BBs might be in an accumulation phase and do not want the price to go higher (which will mean they will need to buy at higher prices). Thus they keep the price at a level which they want and collect as much shares as they can (to reduce the floating supply) and only will move the prices up when they have collected enough and is ready to sell to retailers at higher prices.
At the end of the day, we must understand and accept the fact that our stock market is highly manipulated by these groups of people we term BBs (smart money). Our aim is not to fight against them (counter trend trading) but to ride along with them to make kopi from the market.
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Post by Admin on Aug 4, 2013 13:24:07 GMT 8
Apr 15, 2013; 12:13am Runner Runner
Cklim.. nice analysis..
I think I read somewhere that currently retail trading contribute 60% of the trades. So all those pennies stocks are now the mostly held be retailers thus BB spending less effort to move the prices around. Once the euphoria is over... pennies will dropped fast and furious.
Depending on your broker, the charge might be consolidate into 1 commision fees per counter i.e if you buy 1 lots to test market, then buy 1 lots more and 10 lots more.. instead of charging 3 times, your broker might just charge you once for say $25 min.
Totally agreed that you need to monitor the price actions but hor maybe a few days lor
Last but not least hor.. nowaday.. a lots of retailer also very feirce one le.. they also swop up many bigs lots with amount can buy HBD flat or even a BMW.. also not forgettig those playing contra with no cash upfront hor.
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Post by Admin on Aug 4, 2013 13:25:24 GMT 8
 Apr 18, 2013; 4:05pm cklim cklim
This is a picture to illustrate the 1 lot buy/sell that we see a lot in the Time and Sales.
I was looking at the T&S and I noticed that there were 2 single lot buys executed at the exact same time (15:45:18). From what I had read somewhere, these single lot buy/sells are usually controlled by computer software. For example, when the software detects a sell down, it will automatically do a single lot buy up to keep the price at the level the BB wants to.
What is interesting about this 2 single lot buy up transactions is that they are done at the exact same time. If we assume that these single lot buy ups are indeed controlled by computer software, then these 2 single lot buys ups should be done by 2 different computers which are monitoring the prices (since usually no one would code a programme to execute at up to the micro-seconds). So we could infer from this that there should be more than a single party controlling and wishing to keep the price at the certain level.
Of cos, this is just my point of view. Since we have no information on how BBs operates, this is just guess work on my part. |
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Post by Admin on Aug 4, 2013 13:26:35 GMT 8
Apr 18, 2013; 7:36pm vwstar vwstar
CKlim, is it possible to show exemplar of accumulation using the times and sales?
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Post by Admin on Aug 4, 2013 13:27:46 GMT 8
Apr 18, 2013; 7:36pm vwstar vwstar
CKlim, is it possible to show exemplar of accumulation using the times and sales?
Vwstar,
Buying at support area. I think this one can classified as accumulation.
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Post by Admin on Aug 4, 2013 13:28:34 GMT 8
Apr 18, 2013; 8:25pm vwstar vwstar
wow the buy up volume is huge. It is safer to see monitor for more days to confirm accumulation?
Apr 18, 2013; 8:32pm maruikun maruikun
Vwstar,
You don't need to confirm. Do note BB only accumulate at the low and distribute at the high. When brokers are calling sell and bad news come after one another, public is panic selling and shun away from the stock. That is the moment they are accumulating. When brokers are calling buy and good news come after one another, public is rushing to buy and everyone is bullish on the stock. That is the moment they are distributing.
Very simple logic. Cheers.
Apr 18, 2013; 9:31pm vwstar vwstar
CKlim, Blumont accumulation data was done today right?
Does it look like it is going to go up? 
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Post by Admin on Aug 4, 2013 13:34:19 GMT 8
Apr 18, 2013; 9:31pm vwstar vwstar
CKlim, Blumont accumulation data was done today right?
Does it look like it is going to go up?
Apr 18, 2013; 11:25pm cklim cklim
vwstar, accmulation was done but we won't know when BBs will move the price up. sometimes they will have to sell some of their holdings in order to move the price. sometimes, they will be contented to sit back and let the price drop while they accmulate more. remember that BBS have the financial power to hold the stocks for long periods.
Firstly, sorry for the huge image.
This is an interesting case to see how BBs move the price of a stock up within the space of less than 1 hour. Whether it's a pump and dump action by the BBs will remain to be seen after the price action on 19 April 2013.
Healthway has been thinly traded for a few weeks already and 18 April 2013 seems like another low volume trading day for the stock. For the entire trading day, there had been not much trades going on. If one looks are the T&S, there were only 10 trades done between 0900 hrs till 1615 hrs.
All of a sudden, there was a huge block of stock priced at 0.094 changing hands at 1615 hrs. This huge block of nearly 32 million shares were not put out to trade but instead is a married deal (trader A sells to trader B at a agreed price).
16:06.16 hrs
Almost immediately after the huge transaction, another block of 800+ lots at 0.093 were bought up by a single buyer. Stocks at the next price level of 0.094 was also bought up within seconds.
16:17.00 hrs
A 5 lot selldown was then transacted. This could be another BB doing a test or by a retailer getting rid of the stock. We can see that there was a 3 minutes plus pause before the next transaction. We don't know the exact reason for this pause but I think it might be that the BB who have been buying up the stocks is waiting to see if the 5 lot sell down was done by another BB which if so, may mean more selldowns at 0.094. If the selldowns did occur, the buying BB might choose to stop his actions since this will mean the selling BB might have more stocks to selldown and it will become much more expensive for the buying BB to push the price up.
16:20.43 hrs
After that pause, a 100lot buy up was done. We don't know if it's by the buying BB or retailer.
16:23.14 hrs to 16:23.55 hrs
Stocks at the next few prices (0.095, 0.096 and 0.097) were then bought up very quickly by the buying BB to move the price up.
16:23.57 hrs
By now, the quick buying up has generated interests by other BBs and retailers. Those queueing at 0.097 are "rewarded" with some stocks which are priced lower than the ask(sell) price.
16:25.50hrs
Stocks at the next price of 0.098 were bought up immediately. but the buying BB also started to encounter supply from other BBs who then pushed the price back down. However, the buying BB managed to absorb this supply and continued to buy up all the supply at 0.098 within 30 seconds.
16:27.35 hrs
At the next price of 0.099, the buying BB encountered more resistance (supply) with more stocks being offered at 0.098 after his buying up. This pushed the price back down. The buying BB continued to absorb the supply and bought up all stocks at 0.098. 1 or 2 retailers might have managed to sneak in to buy up 200lots each to help the buying BB.
16:30.00 hrs
More married deals was done. Almost 1500lots changed hands at 0.099. Maybe the buying BB managed to strike a deal with the selling BB to buy up the stock? This married deal seemed to have made stocks at 0.099 vanish at an instance as the next transaction after the married deal was sell downs at 0.099.
16:30.48 hrs
with 0.099 out of the way, the buying BB bought up stocks at 0.100 within 10 seconds.
16:30.58 hrs onwards
Retailers, fund managers, etc seem to be now starting to buy. The buying BB who had accmulated 40k or 50k lots of stock might now have started dumping (distributing) his holdings down to the herd. at price 0.101, the transactions seem to be from the herd as there doesn't seem to be genuine interest to bring the price higher. The buying BB could be now putting up the stocks he bought at 0.094 up for sale at 0.101. He puts up small blocks of stock first. When these blocks are snapped which cause the ask price to go up to 0.102, he distributes some stocks to herd who are queueing at 0.101. He does this a few times to control the price of the stock and entice the herd to more buying since buying at 0.101 is cheaper than buying at 0.102.
When he sense that there is not much interest left at 0.101, the BB pushed the price down to 0.100. The herd which sees that price is now cheaper starts to snap up the stock at 0.100 not knowing that the price may not go up anymore. The BB continues to do this until he has gotten rid of all or most of his stock which is why we see the price continue to slide down.
The above is my analysis of the time and sales and may not be accurate since we do not know what really happened. We can only use what we know (or presume) how the BBs operate to analyse the price/volume actions of the day. |
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